By Percy Chen, Junior Project Manager Art-Science & Suyao Ao, PR and Communications Coordinator
On 20 February 2020, we hosted our webinar titled Café des Sciences: Scientific View on COVID-19 which saw tremendous participation with 201 participants from across China, Switzerland and beyond. Two renowned Swiss epidemiologists Dr. Christian Althaus, University of Bern, and Prof. Dr. Pietro Vernazza, Cantonal Hospital St.Gallen shared their expertise on infectious diseases as well as data-driven analysis to illustrate for us a comprehensive picture of the disease. Topics such as transmission, severity, and pandemic risks were presented and close to 40 questions (including vulnerable demographics, plasma treatment, time to peak & stabilization, sequela or the role of media) were posed by the audience.
We trust that everyone has acquired informative insights on the topic. Unfortunately, due to the time restraint, we could only present a limited number of questions. If you have further questions for our speakers regarding COVID-19, please email us at cafedessciences@swissnexchina.org. We will try our best to forward them to the speakers.
Moreover, the webinar recording and slides are available to download below:
Dr. Felix Moesner (top-left), Prof. Dr. Pietro Vernazza (top-right), and Dr. Christian Althaus (bottom-left)
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Here are some key takeaways that we would like to share with you.
1. Transmission: R0 around 2 - 3 and similar to pandemic influenza
Dr. Althaus introduced R0, the basic reproduction number of an infection, which can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. R0 describes the state where no other individuals are infected or immunized. R0 is measured in the beginning of the outbreak where no measure has been taken over the virus yet.
It is estimated that the R0 of COVID-19 is around 2 -3, which nearly can be defined as pandemics. Its uncertainty is comparable to the 1918 influenza.
2. Pandemic risk: High probability of outbreaks outside China
Based on the transmission characteristics, the pandemic risk of COVID-19 is very high. Currently, most identified cases are found in China. Outside of China, most cases are found in Asian countries. In January, the first case outside of China was confirmed, and currently most cases can be traced back to China. International conveyance is the major travel exposure history for the confirmed cases outside of China.
From the preliminary simulations below, after 50 days, or seven weeks, we would expect about 20 persons infected per day, and a local break in a country can reach the size of 200 individuals.
3. Control: More than 75% of cases need to be isolated for successful control
In the COVID-19 case, more than 75% of contacts of the infected cases need to be isolated for the successful control of the disease.
4. Severity: Overall case fatality around 1% or higher
There are several challenges in assessing case fatality ratio, for example, overestimation due to under-ascertainment of mild cases, and underestimation due to right-censoring of cases with respect to the time delay from illness onset to death.
It is currently estimated that the fatality rate is 1% or even higher. In contrast, seasonable flu is 0.1% or even lower. Therefore, preparedness is recommended.
5. Better hygiene habits would relieve much burden and gain more time for the healthcare system to react
In terms of healthcare system, Switzerland has come up with a new Epidemics Act in force since 2016, where the work-sharing of the Confederation and the cantons in crisis situations is clarified, explicit provisions have been set out to confront new menaces and to manage health emergencies.
However, on the other side, the preparedness for such kind of epidemic also relies on that from an individual level. Hygiene measures are very important in daily life, which would greatly relieve the healthcare system burden in face of such epidemic. Better hygiene habits would gain more time for the healthcare systems to react.
6. Scientists and media should work together to make sure timely distribution of correct information
In general, key media have done a good job in informing the public and drawing attention to the disease during the outbreak of COVID-19. There are also some media or social media that amplify false information and give raw messages away. Therefore, it’s essential that scientists and media collaborate to ensure that the public is timely and correctly informed.
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Finally, before we conclude this blog post, we would like to share some behind the scenes for this event. As many members of the Café des Sciences community knew, the original February Café des Sciences: The Design Mindset was canceled due to the COVID-19 situation. In the meantime, a lot of our audience expressed their concerns regarding COVID-19, as there is a vacuum of quality information on the Internet. We made the decision to swiftly put together an online event in just two days to address this urgent matter. We are confident now that the value we added was well worth the effort.
Again, we would like to express our great appreciation goes to Dr. Althaus and Dr. Vernazza for sharing their high-value expert insights. We would also like to thank our community for your great engagement as always! Most importantly, our heartfelt thanks go to the frontline medical workers combating the virus in China and worldwide.
Stay tuned!
Behind the scenes: In our improvised broadcast room, Dr. Felix Moesner prepares for his moderator role while Percy, Junior Project Manager, tests for the control settings.
Café des Sciences is a new format at swissnex China offering a monthly platform for Swiss Spotlight Scientists and Startups to present their projects and engage with the local community. The lectures are followed by a networking reception and scheduled to take place every third Thursday each month at swissnex China or our partner spaces.
Please stay tuned for our next event on 19 March, 2020.